What Happened
The closure of the Strait of Hormuz amid the Middle East conflict and subsequent suspension of operations by major shipping lines have driven a sharp rise in maritime transport costs worldwide. Moody’s reports daily rates for very large crude carriers (VLCCs) climbed above $350,000 — up from about $200,000 before the conflict — as tankers avoid routes that carry roughly 20% of global oil supply.
Container shipping has also felt the shock. Drewry’s global container index rose 8% in the week of March 6–12 to $2,123 per 40-foot container, up from an average of $1,899 on February 26. Spot rates along major East-West corridors have increased: Shanghai–Rotterdam rose 19% to $2,443 per 40-foot container, Shanghai–Genoa jumped 10% to $3,120, Shanghai–Los Angeles climbed 4% to $2,503, and Shanghai–New York rose 3% to $3,080.
Shipping lines including MSC and CMA CGM have announced Freight All Kinds (FAK) rate increases beginning March 22, and Drewry expects spot rates to continue rising in the coming weeks as carriers adjust capacity and pricing.
Impact on Panama
For Panama, the immediate effects are mixed and being monitored cautiously by the local logistics sector. Alberto López Tom, former president of the Business Logistics Council (COEL), said the direct impact on consumer goods arriving in Panama may be moderate because much cargo from Asia does not necessarily traverse the most risky zones. He cautioned, however, that higher fuel prices caused by the disruption will raise maritime transport costs globally.
“We will definitely see an impact on final prices here — I would say a slight one — but there will be an increase due to higher freight and product costs,” López Tom said.
Daniel Isaza, a logistics analyst and also a former COEL president, noted freight increases of around 10% on some routes and said no major shifts have yet appeared in marine insurance premiums because many vessels are simply avoiding higher-risk areas. Isaza highlighted a possible upside for Panama: “Many of those ships changing route will pass through the Panama Canal, which can generate more cargo movement.” He added that current operations at Panamanian ports remain normal, with ongoing re-exports to Central America and activity from the Colón Free Zone.
Carlos Urriola, a port consultant, emphasized that the most immediate effect is higher energy costs. He said the blocking of strategic passages like the Strait of Hormuz pushes up fuel prices and, in turn, transport costs across the board. Urriola suggested Panama could see more energy-related vessel traffic, particularly from the United States, if carriers redirect shipments through the isthmus.
Outlook
Moody’s warns that if the situation is resolved within weeks, freight rates could return relatively quickly to more normal levels; a prolonged disruption would keep transport costs elevated and place sustained pressure on global supply chains while benefiting shipping companies. For Panama, the disruption presents both risks and opportunities: higher costs for imports if the crisis endures, but potential to strengthen the Canal and ports as an alternative transit route if authorities and operators maintain efficient, reliable services.