--- title: "Panama Canal, Smithsonian and IMHPA Warn of Strong El Niño Threat to Water Security" date: 2026-09-11 modified: 2026-09-12 author: "Panama Daily News" url: https://panamadaily.news/2026/09/11/panama-canal-smithsonian-and-imhpa-warn-of-strong-el-nino-threat-to-water-security/ categories: - "Environment" --- # Panama Canal, Smithsonian and IMHPA Warn of Strong El Niño Threat to Water Security Panama’s leading scientific and operational institutions joined forces this week to confront one of the most pressing climate questions facing the country: how a strengthening El Niño will affect the Panama Canal’s water supply and the drinking water relied upon by more than half the nation’s population. ## What Happened Experts from the Panama Canal Authority, the Smithsonian Tropical Research Institute (STRI), and Panama’s Institute of Meteorology and Hydrology (IMHPA) gathered Thursday at the Canal’s Roberto F. Chiari Library for a forum titled “Event or Phenomenon: The Impact of El Niño in Panama.” The discussion examined the causes, effects, and challenges associated with El Niño and its consequences for the country and the wider region. Opening the event, Luis Rovira, the Canal’s Vice President for Water Resources Management, emphasized that El Niño represents one of the greatest challenges for water management. “It’s a resource that not only makes Panama Canal operations possible but also ensures the supply of drinking water for millions of Panamanians,” Rovira said, noting that canal decisions are grounded in decades of hydrological data, scientific knowledge, and lessons learned, strengthened by collaboration with institutions such as the Smithsonian and IMHPA. “By combining science, research, and operational experience, we have developed a better understanding of our watershed and the effects of climate variability,” he added, explaining that this knowledge enables the canal to make informed, timely, and responsible decisions to protect national water security while maintaining reliable service for global maritime trade. Steve Paton, STRI’s Director of Physical Monitoring, described El Niño as contributing to an “unusual year” in which the dry season saw exceptionally high rainfall while the rainy season now faces a precipitation deficit. “It is a year marked by uncertainty, due to a particularly intense El Niño that continues to strengthen,” Paton said. Luz Graciela de Calzadilla, Director of IMHPA, warned that forecasts point to a very strong El Niño event that could initiate the dry season in the second half of November. Its effects, she explained, could be felt across key sectors including agriculture, power generation, public health, and drinking water supply. ## Background November is a critical month for the Panama Canal Watershed. Historically, it is the wettest month of the year in the region, delivering the rainfall needed to replenish the lakes that support canal transits and provide drinking water for more than half of Panama’s population during the dry season. A precipitation deficit in November therefore has direct consequences both for global shipping and for households across the country. The canal depends on freshwater from Gatun Lake and other reservoirs to lift and lower ships through its locks. Each transit consumes millions of gallons of water, meaning that drought conditions in the watershed translate quickly into operational constraints for one of the world’s most important trade routes. Gloria Arrocha and Ayax Murillo of the Canal’s Water Resources Management team explained at the forum how continuous monitoring and analysis of climate conditions and lake levels feed directly into decision-making, allowing the canal to implement water and operational strategies and respond promptly to adverse climate scenarios. ## What This Means for Panama The canal has already acted. Since late 2025, it has introduced initiatives to optimize water use in its operations, complemented by adjustments based on technical assessments and updated lake-level projections. Measures have included draft adjustments for vessels and, more recently, a reduction in the number of daily transits — only the second such reduction in the history of the interoceanic waterway. For Panamanians, the implications extend beyond shipping. IMHPA’s warnings about agriculture, power generation, and public health signal that the effects of this El Niño could be felt across the economy and in daily life, particularly if the dry season begins earlier than usual in November. The Canal Authority says it will continue to closely monitor the evolution of El Niño and its potential effects on the watershed’s water resources. With scientists from STRI and IMHPA forecasting a very strong event, the coming weeks — and especially November’s rainfall — will be decisive for both the canal’s operations and the country’s water security. This story was originally reported by [Panama Canal Authority](https://pancanal.com/en/panama-canal-smithsonian-and-imhpa-analyze-the-impacts-of-el-nino/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=panama-canal-smithsonian-and-imhpa-analyze-the-impacts-of-el-nino).